It can lead to misinterpretation of cause-effect relations, underestimation of the difficulty of taking decisions during periods of high uncertainty and pressure to act, and flawed prescriptions of how to overcome problems.
#Hindsight bias meaning series#
Last year, Prime Minister Boris Johnson countered criticisms of his UK Government over the death toll in care homes by calling opposition leader Keir Starmer ‘Captain Hindsight’ – after the superhero from the South Park series who dishes out useless advice in the immediate aftermath of accidents and disasters.Ĭultural references aside, hindsight bias is a serious problem for public inquiries, whether they are aimed at lesson-learning, accountability, or a mixture of both. It can also be used by politicians as a defence in public.
It can also affect organisations, political actors and news media in debates over who is to be blamed and what lessons should be learned from surprises, disasters, crises and failures. Hindsight bias doesn’t only distort the memories and reasoning of individuals. Also known as the ‘knew it all along fallacy’, it is well-evidenced in psychological studies of medical diagnoses, auditing decisions and terrorist attacks. ‘Hindsight bias’ is the tendency to exaggerate in retrospect how predictable an event was at the time, either to ourselves or other people. This is why it’s important to add objectivity to your ideas and properly set up campaigns.The first in a series of IPPO blogs on the optimal design of COVID-related public inquiries discusses how to limit the risks of distorted memories, failure to contextualise, and over-reliance on certain experts Christoph Meyer However, I have not considered the subject line, call to action and a variety of other factors that may have contributed to the increased CTR. If the CTR increases for the newsletter with the image in it, I may automatically assume that the campaign was successful because of the image. This is why it’s best to establish guidelines on what is successful and what is not.įor example, say I set up an experiment to see if including an image in my email newsletter increases click through rates. Then, as you look back on the results, you’ll use hindsight bias to justify why things happened the way that they did. Inconclusive Experiments: If marketing experiments are not set up properly, it’s easy to identify something as a “win”, fudge numbers, or simply be left with inconclusive data. This is exactly what happened to JC Penney’s revenue in 2012. Now when you try to take discounts away, your revenue may drop dramatically. For example, you may condition customers to expect discounts, meaning that they will only spend money when there is a sale. This may be the case, but there are also adverse effects.
In fact, you want them to be at the point that they they are telling their friends, “I knew this would be the best company to buy X from.”ĭiscounting: Businesses may assume that discounts increase revenue. These customers are genuinely happy that they bought your product as they feel that the value they receive was worth more than the price they paid. Honest Marketing: When marketing to customers, you need them to hit a point where they select your product or service and are later so satisfied that they congratulate themselves. Hindsight bias happens when someone sees an event as predictable and happens as they guessed it would, even if they have little to no objective reason for making that prediction. Also Known As: The "knew-it-all-along" effect, or creeping determinism.
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